US, Philippines joint war games send a signal to China

On Tuesday, the US and and the Philippines began their annual "Balikatan" military exercises. This year's war games are seen as a statement from Manila pushing back against Chinese aggression in the South China Sea.

Held in the Philippines, the war games are aimed at improving the respective militaries' ability to respond jointly to threats in the Indo-Pacific.

The exercises were first staged in 1991. Balikatan means "shoulder-to-shoulder" in Tagalog.

Biggest drills yet

This year's joint military drills are set to be the largest ever. They will include more than 17,000 troops, with over 12,000 of those coming from the US.

Live-fire exercises will include the simulated defense of a small Philippines island and will also see troops blow up a mock target warship off the coast of Zambales province in the South China Sea.

The exercises will showcase US warships, fighter jets, HIMARS launchers and anti-tank Javelins, according to officials. 

Victor Andres Manhit, a political analyst and CEO of the Stratbase Group, a Manila-based strategic consultancy, said the exercises can be seen as a "statement" from the Philippine government.

"Given the number of personnel from the US military, we can expect a broader and bigger military exercise than before," he told DW.

He added that the government of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte carried out more limited war games and had a more restrained policy on cooperation with the US.

"This type of big military exercise is a statement in itself that the alliance remains strong," he said, noting that the exercises give the Philippine military the chance to elevate its capacity through training.

A revamped Philippine foreign policy?

This year's expanded games are another sign that the Philippines' foreign policy under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is moving towards the US and away from its previous China-friendly stance under Duterte.

Duterte had downgraded relations with the US while he was president, saying Manila needed to reduce its reliance on Washington.

However, the US and the Philippines have been treaty partners for decades under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDA).

The most recent agreement between the two countries was signed in 2014 under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), allowing for more combined training and exercises between the countries' militaries.

Marcos has said Manila is pursuing an independent foreign policy based on the Philippines' own national interests, stating the country is a "friend to all and an enemy to none."

A deterrent for China?

Manhit, the analyst, said the combat drills are aimed at deterring a more assertive China as tensions in the South China Sea continue.

In recent years, China has built military installations on reefs and islands claimed by the Philippines, as well as harassed Philippine vessels in the South China Sea.

China's sweeping claims to the waters in the South China Sea were rejected by an international tribunal in 2016. Beijing has not accepted the ruling, however, and considers the waters to be its own.

In February, an incident occurred in the Ayungin Shoal, which is militarily controlled by the Philippines but is claimed by China.

China's Coast Guard was accused of using a military-grade laser, causing temporary blindness to the crew from the Philippines Coast Guard.

Beijing denied this was the case, but the incident prompted President Marcos to summon the Chinese ambassador.

"We've seen in the past few years how China has been aggressive with regards to issues within our own exclusive economic zone, we've seen this aggressiveness with Chinese positions, bullying fisherman boats," said Manhit. "The problem is, how can we really deter this?"

Increased US-Philippines cooperation

The annual drills come shortly after Manila granted Washington access to four new military naval bases on Philippine islands in February.

Three of the naval bases are north of Luzon Island in the Philippines, an area close to Taiwan.

The decision wasn't well-received by China, which insists Taiwan is part of its territory and will one day be "reunified" by force if necessary.

President Marcos assured China on Monday that the providing the US access to military bases was to boost defense and wouldn't be used as a launchpad for any military offensive. In March, a Filipino military official said the Balikatan games are also not intended to provoke Beijing.

Colonel Michael Logico, a spokesman for the drills, told local media that the Philippines are bound by their treaty obligation with the US.

Sari Arho Havren, a China analyst based in Brussels, told DW that the military exercises, new naval bases and rejuvenated alliance between Manila and Washington represent a setback for Beijing.

"It clearly is a considerable pushback and a blow to Beijing's regional ambitions, and a big blow to Beijing against the backdrop of the accelerating power competition between China and the US in the Indo-Pacific," she said.

"If China was to invade Taiwan, the Philippines could get drawn into the conflict with its key geographical location that could give either side a considerable advantage," she added.

Tensions have been increasing between China and the US in recent years, and Taiwan represents a potential flash point.

On Monday, China concluded three days of military drills around the self-ruled island following the recent meeting between Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen and US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

Bijan Ahmadi, a foreign policy analyst and executive director of the Institute for Peace & Diplomacy, said Washington and Beijing need to seek dialogue despite the growing military tension in the South China Sea.

"A crucial challenge for both the United States and China is to manage their competition in a way that prevents tensions from escalating into a military conflict," he said. "It is essential for Washington and Beijing to actively engage in diplomatic dialogue and establish measures and guardrails to avert such a conflict."

Edited by: Wesley Rahn