In the future, one cannot rule out that two opposing camps might divide Israel, leaving the state home to two separate societies: one liberal, the other nationalist; one broad-minded and tolerant, and one that will not accept any other identity. The Israeli election campaign already hinted at that possibility. The result confirms a progressing alienation between the blocs within Israel's society.
"Polls suggest that at least 10 percent of Israelis gave the nod to a party committed to giving the finger to 20 percent of our fellow citizens, the Israeli Arabs", says Gil Troy, commentator for the Jerusalem Post, on what he thinks could be in store next for Israel: a deepening of the rifts fracturing an already divided country. There are many indications that the Religious Zionist Party of Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, which political observers often describe as extremely right-wing, will continue their stance. Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister would have to answer for their hard-line.
Foreign policy tensions
The internal political rifts are deepening at a time when Israel finds itself in a tense and threatening geopolitical situation. Neighborly relations remain difficult. The Abraham Accords, memorandums of understanding with a number of Arab states — including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan — were signed in the late summer of 2020 and provided some relief. Hopefully, they will mark the beginning of a gradual normalization of foreign relations.
Any such success, however, is pitted against enormous challenges elsewhere. That is true of Iran in particular, whose decaying leadership — currently under severe attack from within the country — has for years been calling for the destruction of Israel and investing enormous military resources to that end. Above all, it's been an attempt to re-direct the people's resentment. The present shows these attempts were in vain.
The Hezbollah in Lebanon, that many call "the long arm of Iran", has stockpiled thousands of missiles, creating a credible threat. It seems unlikely that the gas deal just concluded between Israel and Lebanon will eliminate this threat in the long term.
Shift in the political discourse?
In addition, the Islamist Hamas and, even more so, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip remain difficult to predict. As Israeli governments swing ever further to the right, dialogue with Palestinian representatives, regardless of whether they are radical or moderate, is likely to become increasingly difficult. Meanwhile, radical settlers can articulate their calls for more lands even more freely and vociferously.
It's safe to assume that Smotrich and Ben-Gvir will answer these calls. Demands for the annexation of already occupied Palestinian territories could also now resurface. Nir Zilber, a political scientist and consultant with the Israel Policy Forum, said in his podcast that the Religious Zionist Party wants to push the boundaries of political discourse. In other words: they want to stretch it towards a 'new radicalism', which would include defining Israel not just as a Jewish state, but also as a religious state. Israeli society faces a crucial test, Zilber argued.
At the moment, it does not seem that any of this can impress Benjamin Netanyahu, who faces several court cases. As prime minister, the office would keep additional legal problems off his back. An alliance with the ultra-right does not seem too high a price for him to pay for this. Instead, it will be Israel's society who will pay, as it drifts ever further apart.
This article was originally written in German.