With his trip to China, French President Emmanuel Macron has once again proven to be a diplomatic lightweight who has done a disservice to the European Union and the entire free world.
The politician prided himself on a private get-together with Xi Jinping that lasted several hours. During that meeting, Xi seems to have showered Macron with compliments to such an extent that back in Paris, Macron stated Europe shouldn't let itself be taken in by the United States in matters concerning China.
That's exactly how Beijing, which sees Europe as an appendage of the US, would put it. The communist leadership attacks the EU partly because China needs this part of the free world for its economic rise, but more importantly because Xi wants to drive a wedge between the nations of the free world and divide them. If Xi makes good on his threat and attacks Taiwan, what will matter is how the free world reacts to its democratic partners in Taipei. Macron warns against becoming a "vassal" of the US (again, exactly Beijing's choice of words), but leaves open what an alternative would look like, should China annex Taiwan.
Reward for French businesses
That potential annexation is just what the Chinese army practiced over the weekend with its three-day military blockade of the island — showing the world that Beijing is ready to attack. If France, the EU's only remaining nuclear power, says it will not join Washington in defending the freedom of threatened Taiwan, champagne corks will be popping in Xi's office. It's not inappropriate to assume Macron carefully weighed his statement, and that it will be rewarded with Chinese orders for the French economy. Macron came to China with 60 industry representatives.
What's tragic is that, with his statement, France's head of state has made an attack on Taiwan more likely. Xi has learned from Vladimir Putin's mistakes. Putin was taken utterly by surprise by the unity with which the free world supported Ukraine, the country he attacked. Xi's "Crimea moment" was the suppression of the democracy movement in Hong Kong. The reaction was similar to what the world saw after Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 — a few emailed complaints and very biting comments in the press.
Both former US President Donald Trump and his successor Joe Biden, however, have since drawn clear limits with China. Trump respected the current legal situation, according to which Taiwan would be equipped with weapons in the event of defense against China, and he expanded the ties between the two states. Biden has even gone a step further and, on several occasions, pledged to defend the island should Beijing attack.
Not governed by separatists
It bears repeating that, contrary to Beijing's claims, the People's Republic never ruled over Taiwan. Taipei is not ruled by separatists, but by a legitimate government voted into office in free and fair elections. The successful democracy on its doorstep bothers Beijing because it fears its own citizens could follow Taiwan's example and one day drive the Communists out of office. That fear is not entirely unfounded: Fewer than 100 million of the 1.4 billion Chinese are party members. Should Xi and the CCP face nationwide protests again like those in November 2022, Taiwan would be a tested democratic alternative to Beijing's dictatorship.
Macron's trip to Beijing was a total failure from which the people of Taiwan in particular will suffer. In retrospect, it appears Washington's skepticism concerning the trip was not unfounded. American officials made it clear in advance that since Macron didn't successfully negotiate with either Tehran or Moscow, there was no great hope that this time would be different.
It has become clear once more that Germany must position itself well in terms of foreign and security policy, because France is short on workable ideas. But Chancellor Olaf Scholz, too, is on a Beijing-friendly course. From Xi's vantage point, the two core EU nations pose no threat to his plans for a possible invasion of Taiwan.
Alexander Görlach is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs and a research associate at the Internet Institute at Oxford University. After residencies in Taiwan and Hong Kong, that part of the world — particularly the rise of China and what it means for the free world — has been his primary area of focus. He's also held various positions at Harvard and Cambridge University.
This article was translated from German.