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China has doubts on ability to invade Taiwan, CIA chief says

February 26, 2023

US intelligence chief William Burns says there appear to be doubts in Beijing about China's ability to successfully invade Taiwan. However, he said it was still important to take the threat to the island very seriously.

https://p.dw.com/p/4O0Hl
CM-11 tanks maneuver during a 2-day live-fire drill of the Taiwanese military
Taiwan launched live-fire exercises as China conducted military maneuvers near the islandImage: Ceng Shou Yi/NurPhoto/IMAGO

In a television interview on Sunday, the director of the United States' Central Intelligence Agency said it appeared that China was uncertain about a possible military ability to take over Taiwan.

However, CIA chief William Burns said Chinese President XI Jinping had instructed the country's military to be "ready by 2027" to invade the island.

What did the CIA chief say?

"President Xi has instructed the PLA, the Chinese military leadership, to be ready by 2027 to invade Taiwan, but that doesn't mean that he's decided to invade in 2027 or any other year as well."

"I think our judgment at least is that President Xi and his military leadership have doubts today about whether they could accomplish that invasion."

Burns said it appeared likely that Russian President Vladimir Putin's setbacks during the invasion of Ukraine may have informed Beijing's sentiments.

"I think, as they've looked at Putin's experience in Ukraine, that's probably reinforced some of those doubts," Burns said.

However, the CIA head said the West needed to take Xi's ambitions to ultimately control Taiwan "very seriously."

'China is changing the rules of the game'

He said the potential use of force was likely to grow by the end of the decade and into the next.

Putin and Xi ponder 'unholy alliance'

The US and its allies have been wary of Beijing's response to the invasion of Ukraine, with some officials warning that a Russian victory could embolden China in its plans toward Taiwan.

China has never renounced the use of force to take control of the self-ruled island, which it considers to be a wayward province. China has not condemned Russia's war in Ukraine and has not called it an "invasion."

Republican lawmaker Michael McCaul on Sunday said Xi was preparing to visit Moscow next week for a meeting with Putin. Although Putin has alluded to such a meeting, the timing has yet to be confirmed by either Beijing or Moscow.

McCaul, chairman of the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee, highlighted reports that China was considering sending drones to Russia.

"The fact that they're going to meet next week, Chairman Xi and Putin, to discuss this unholy alliance that they have, to put weapons into Ukraine, to me is very disturbing because while maybe Ukraine today, it's going to be Taiwan tomorrow," McCaul said.

rc/jcg (AP, Reuters)